by Kieran Cooke, Climate News
Network
LONDON—The report, East African
Agriculture and Climate Change, published by the International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI), looks at threats to food supplies in 11 countries
in East and Central Africa – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania and
Uganda.
Agriculture accounts for more than
40% of gross domestic product across the region. The report says soil
deficiencies in many parts mean agricultural productivity is falling.
Ecosystems are depleted,
infrastructure is poor and there’s a lack of reliable information and policy
coordination. Meanwhile weather systems are becoming more erratic and violent.
“Climate change will have
far-reaching consequences for the poor and marginalized groups, among which the
majority depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and have a lower capacity
to adapt…this situation is likely to become more desperate and to threaten the
very survival of the most vulnerable farmers as global warming continues”, says
the study.
Crop production across the region
depends overwhelmingly on rainfall. Many areas are likely to see less rainfall
in future and an increased incidence of droughts. In 2011 there were prolonged
droughts in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.
Rising temperatures in many areas
are likely to result in reduced crop yields: harvests of wheat, soybean,
sorghum and irrigated rice could decline by between 5% and 20%, with irrigated
rice production being the hardest hit. However, output of rain-fed maize and
rain-fed rice might increase slightly, due to increased rainfall in some areas.
Endemic poverty affects more than
50% of the region’s 360 million people. Overall – unless adaptation measures,
including the introduction of new crop varieties, better land management and the
advancing of planting dates to cope better with changes in climate are adopted
– the outlook for the region is bleak, warns the report.
“Recent trends and the current
performance of agriculture expose a region that is progressively less able to
meet the needs of its burgeoning population.”
The countries of East Africa have
among the highest population increases in the world: between 1988 and 2008 the
region’s population – excluding that of the DRC – increased by “a staggering”
74%. By 2050, that population could double.
While there’s growing urbanisation
across the region and more industrial development, agriculture will continue to
dominate the countries’ economies.
The report says there’s a role for
insurance schemes which would enable farmers to cope better with changes in
climate. But persuading those working on the land – mainly smallholders – to
invest in such schemes is hard, with no spare cash available to spend on even
small premiums.
The study is a collaboration between
IFPRI, the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR),
the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central
Africa (ASARECA) and regional scientists. Previous studies have looked at the
impact of climate change on agriculture in West Africa and southern Africa
Adopted from internet.
